Why Your Stripe Dashboard Shows Different MRR Than Reality

Stripe records everything in UTC, but your customers subscribe in their local timezone. This creates massive reporting issues that compound over time. Example: A customer subscribing at 11 PM PST on January 31st appears as February 1st in UTC. Your January MRR is now wrong by one customer. Multiply this by hundreds of international customers and your MRR can be off by 5-10%. The problem gets worse with upgrades and downgrades. A customer upgrading their plan at month-end might show in the wrong month entirely, distorting both months' metrics. Our ML solution: We normalize all timestamps to your business timezone and reconstruct the actual subscription timeline, eliminating timezone discrepancies completely.

When customers upgrade mid-cycle, Stripe proration can create phantom MRR that does not reflect reality. Here is what happens: Day 1: Customer on $50/mo plan (MRR: $50) Day 15: Upgrades to $150/mo plan Stripe shows: $150 MRR for the month Reality: $100 weighted average MRR This overreporting gets worse with multiple plan changes. We have seen companies with 20%+ MRR inflation due to proration errors alone. The fix: Time-weighted MRR calculations that account for partial periods give you the actual recurring revenue for each month.

Our 4-model approach reconstructs your true MRR: 1. Timeline Reconstruction Model: Rebuilds subscription history with proper timezone handling 2. Currency Normalization Model: Applies historical exchange rates at transaction time 3. Churn Detection Model: Identifies truly churned vs. pending cancellation 4. Trial Conversion Predictor: Weights trial MRR by conversion probability Result: Your actual MRR, updated in real-time, with full audit trail showing every calculation.